Future scenarios of the metal mechanical. Sector municipality of Tuluá and its area of inlcuence. Horizon 2018 - 2028

Abstract

This research article presents an analysis of the strategic prospective of the metal-mechanic sector of the municipality of Tuluá and its area of influence: Andalusia, Bugalagrande, Riofrío, San Pedro, Trujillo, Restrepo and Yotoco. The purpose
of this study revolves around three axes: 1. Identify possible and probable future scenarios for the metalworking sector of the central region of Valle del Cauca; 2. From the identified scenarios, the betting scenario to which the sector should
be routed is defined; 3. According to the opinion of experts and key actors, strategies to improve competitiveness in the metalworking sector are determined, seeking to generate a positive impact on the environment of the central region of
the Valley and enriching its development for its insertion in the international context This study applies the methodology proposed in the “strategic foresight toolbox” and involves other methods such as governance and uncertainty analysis, as well as sectoral analysis elements, especially those related to productive linkages. This investigation was carried out in two phases: diagnostic and prospective. In the diagnosis, a documentary analysis was carried out, consultation with key actors and experts; applied tools such as brainstorming, the Regnier abacus, structural analysis, and for the design of the scenarios the detailed analysis of the results was used in order to propose the exploratory scenarios and propose the bet scenario, which is focused in a solid formation of human capital.